FNUS73 KAPX 031231 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUEBERRY RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 831 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE BURN SITE. SOME LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING...BUT ANY SNOWFALL WITH THESE WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...FURTHER DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHERE WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THIS DOES NOT NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...IT WILL BECOME DRY...WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MAX 39. RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4400-4800 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1300). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........23 18 17 15 13 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............35 37 38 39 39 RH..............29 26 23 24 24 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 4 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......900 700 700 600 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 24. RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........15 19 21 22 26 29 33 36 38 38 40 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............38 36 34 30 27 25 24 25 25 25 25 24 RH..............27 30 36 46 57 65 71 68 71 71 71 77 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......400 300 200 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51. RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 24 TO 32 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........42 43 52 65 75 71 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN TEMP............25 29 38 46 49 49 RH..............74 66 48 38 37 39 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 12 SW 15 SW 15 W 15 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 20 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 300 800 1200 1100 $$ FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130403.BLUEB.01/APX