FNUS73 KJKL 031108 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR TIPRELL A B...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 708 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 EDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BRING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS AND THE STRENGTHENING APRIL SUN WILL LEAD TO LOW HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RAIN TO THE BURN AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AS FOR DISPERSION...A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND NIGHTTIME DISPERSION WILL BE RATHER POOR. THE LVORI INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM TONIGHT...SO THE RISK OF LOW VISIBILITY IS LOW. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........32 AT IGNITION...MAX 55. HUMIDITY............69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 17 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EVENING. SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. POP.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....MAX 34. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%)............26 23 21 20 21 22 WEATHER COV........ WEATHER TYPE.......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP...............28 39 48 52 55 54 RH.................69 43 28 22 18 19 20 FT WIND.........NE 2 NE 5 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 NE 6 20 FT WIND GUST....5 10 10 10 10 RIDGETOP WIND......NW 5 N 5 NE 5 NE 10 NE 10 NE 10 MIX HGT (FT).......100 2400 3300 3900 3800 2900 TRANSPORT WIND.....NE 5 NE 12 NE 8 NE 7 NE 8 NE 12 HAINES INDEX.......4 4 4 3 3 3 VENT RATE (KT-FT)..400 23550 23135 23310 26621 29310 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX AROUND 64 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST AROUND 5 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST AROUND 5 MPH. POP.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........23 25 27 30 32 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 43 40 38 36 35 RH..............22 33 35 33 45 55 20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...NE 5 NE 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 MIX HGT (FT)....400 200 200 300 200 100 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 5 NE 4 E 4 E 4 E 5 E 4 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY...THEN RAIN LIKELY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55. HUMIDITY............MIN AROUND 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST 2 TO 5 MPH. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST AROUND 6 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST AROUND 6 MPH. POP.................90 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL THROUGH 1300 THROUGH NOON... INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 FEET AGL BY 1400. MAX 2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH AROUND 1000. BECOMING SOUTHEAST 17 TO 22 MPH AROUND 1300. SHIFTING TO SOUTH AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 1800. DISPERSION INDEX....MAX 42. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........37 56 81 100 100 100 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............35 41 44 52 53 54 RH..............60 50 48 51 53 56 20 FT WIND......E 3 E 3 E 3 SE 3 E 2 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...E 5 E 5 E 6 SE 7 E 5 E 5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 800 1300 2000 2200 2000 TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 SE 13 SE 20 SE 22 SE 20 S 13 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...PELTON REQUESTED BY...BURN BOSS SASHA ERNST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130403.TIPRE.01/JKL