FNUS72 KMFL 031222
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR BC SC 4...SEMINOLE TRIBE OF FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
822 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GULF. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SOUTH FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE, TO BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALBEIT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE SITE. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS AROUND
AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH, DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZE. TOMORROW
THERE WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
AN EVEN MORE ENHANCED THREAT OF CONVECTION TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH
SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG.

RESIDUAL SMOKE COULD LEAD TO A PATCHY MIX OF SMOKE/FOG OVERNIGHT
BUT GIVEN MIXING WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 46 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 13 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 16 TO
                    20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....16 INCREASING TO 57 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........38     38     33     33     33     62
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............75     84     86     86     81     75
RH..............68     52     47     47     54     70
20 FT WIND......E 2    SE 8   SE 10  SE 10  SE 9   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      15     20     20     20     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2700   4000   4500   4500   4000   700
MIXNG WIND......E 5    SE 16  SE 20  SE 20  SE 18  SE 12
DISPERSION IDX..16     59     56     56     54     10
LVORI...........4      1      1      1      1      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     10
LAL.............1      1      2      2      2      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............6.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 55 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 16
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 INCREASING TO 55 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 41 LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SANTOS
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LIGHTSEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130403.BCSC4.01/MFL