FNUS73 KAPX 041253 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOUD BUCK RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 853 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0725 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN FOR TODAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED /33 FOOT WINDS/ AT THE OSCODA AIRPORT AROUND 12 TO 16 MPH AS OF 7 TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON /SEE BELOW/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BURN AREA FOR TODAY...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION HERE TO REACH THE GROUND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA. IT WILL BECOME DRY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DIPPING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING ENSUES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........30 AT IGNITION...MAX 53. RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 22 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1500). TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........27 46 40 30 24 27 32 35 36 39 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............29 30 34 39 43 47 50 52 53 53 53 RH..............59 55 49 42 38 34 30 29 29 31 32 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 9 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 25 30 30 30 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 200 500 800 100012001300140015001500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 28. RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN FAIR(200). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........51 71 81 72 54 45 40 31 27 25 21 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 48 45 42 40 38 36 35 33 32 31 30 RH..............34 40 45 53 59 64 69 72 75 75 78 78 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..10 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......15001300120011001000900 700 500 300 300 200 300 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 39. RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1100). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........18 15 18 23 26 29 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............29 29 33 36 38 38 RH..............78 72 53 42 35 35 20 FT WIND......NW 6 NW 6 N 8 N 10 N 9 N 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 1000 1000 900 700 700 $$ FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130404.LOUDB.01/APX