FNUS73 KJKL 032104 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELTON...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 504 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING IN PLACE A VERY DRY AIR MASS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 15 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL SETTLE DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND LOW RH THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ALSO... GENERALLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER NEARER TO THE VA AND TN BORDERS...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS...IF ANY...NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MILDER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. POP.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 22 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....69. TIME (EDT) 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........27 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TEMP............54 53 RH..............17 18 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 RIDGETOP WIND...NE 20 NE 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 3.4 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 17 E 21 HAINES INDEX....4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH EARLY BECOMING LIGHT. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. POP.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........26 32 36 45 50 58 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............52 44 40 38 35 33 RH..............20 33 43 51 59 66 20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..10 8 3 3 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.20 10 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...NE 15 E 10 E 10 E 5 E 5 E 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 TRANSPORT WIND..E 22 SE 7 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. POP.................80 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....47. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........66 74 85 94 95 98 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............32 37 44 49 52 52 RH..............76 59 45 41 44 48 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE E E 20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 NE 5 NE 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.2 2.4 5.2 5.0 4.6 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 SE 8 SE 13 S 10 SE 10 SE 8 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...GREIF REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130404.SHELT.01/JKL