FNUS73 KJKL 040957 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELTON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 557 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL DRY AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE BURN AREA BY MIDDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GULF COAST STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MILDER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING AROUND NOON...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FROM 1400 ON. TEMPERATURE.........AROUND 42 AT IGNITION...MAX AROUND 51. HUMIDITY............AROUND 57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIN HUMIDITY AROUND 40 PERCENT AROUND DAWN. WIND (20 FT)........EAST AROUND 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 1200. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH. POP.................30 AT IGNITION...90 PERCENT FOR THE DAY. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO 1000-1900 FT AGL BY 1300. MAX 1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH...DECREASING TO 8 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....9 AT IGNITION...MAX 21. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%)..........98 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV......CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE.....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP.............42 45 49 49 48 RH...............57 67 69 72 73 20 FT WIND.......E 5 SE 5 SE 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST..9 11 10 10 9 RIDGETOP WIND....E 7 SE 7 SE 7 E 7 E 7 MIX HGT (FT).....800 1100 1300 1600 1800 TRANSPORT WIND...SE 14 SE 21 SE 17 SE 14 SE 10 HAINES INDEX.....3 3 3 3 3 DISPERSION INDEX.9 20 20 20 16 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY EARLY...THEN SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 2200. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. HUMIDITY............MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH AROUND 2200...THEN BECOMING NORTH 2 TO 4 MPH AROUND 0200. SURROUNDING RIDGE...EAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 2200...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 0200. RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 2200...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AROUND 0200. POP.................60 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........100 100 98 94 92 87 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN FOG TEMP............46 43 41 39 38 37 RH..............74 83 93 100 100 99 20 FT WIND......E 3 NE 3 NE 3 N 3 N 4 N 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGETOP WIND...E 5 NE 5 NE 5 N 5 N 5 N 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1200 900 800 700 600 TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 5 NE 4 N 4 N 4 N 4 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX AROUND 62. HUMIDITY............MIN AROUND 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH AROUND 1000...THEN BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH AROUND 1600. SURROUNDING RIDGE...NORTH 4 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 7 TO 11 MPH AROUND 1000...THEN BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH AROUND 1600. RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTH 4 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 7 TO 11 MPH AROUND 1000...THEN BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH AROUND 1600. POP.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 400FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-4300 FT AGL BY 1100...THEN INCREASING FURTHER TO 4400-5200 FT AGL BY 1400. MAX 5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH UNTIL EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....52. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........73 55 43 25 25 23 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............36 45 52 59 60 60 RH..............100 75 54 37 35 35 20 FT WIND......N 3 N 5 N 7 N 9 NNW 8 NNW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 10 10 RIDGETOP WIND...N 5 N 7 N 9 N 11 NNW 10 NNW 8 MIX HGT (FT)....400 2400 3400 4700 5000 4400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 NE 9 N 14 N 12 NW 12 NW 13 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PELTON REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130404.SHELT.01/JKL