FNUS73 KLOT 041555 FWSLOT SPOT FORECAST FOR MNOKE PRAIRIE RX BURN...INDIANA DUNES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1055 AM CDT THU APR 4 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT LATE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA BY DUSK. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE LAKE AND THE LAND...A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATER AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE A LIGHT WIND PARALLELING THE SHORE RIGHT AT THE SHORE WITH A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE. IF THE LAKE INFLUENCED WIND FIELD TURNS SLIGHTLY ONSHORE THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD TURN COOLER...MIXING HEIGHTS WOULD LOWER TO BELOW 2000 FT AND VENT RATES WOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20000 KT-FT. PROBABILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE REACHING THE BURN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IS 20 PERCENT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2500-4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..47. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /35500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR /43500 KNOT-FT/. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........19 12 10 7 5 9 12 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............48 50 53 56 56 55 54 RH..............35 33 30 27 27 27 30 20FT WIND DIR...220 230 240 240 240 240 240 20FT SPEED(MPH).6 5 5 5 5 5 4 20FT SPEED(KT)..5 4 4 4 4 4 3 20FT GUST(MPH)..13 12 10 10 10 9 8 20FT GUST(KT)...11 10 9 9 9 8 7 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.240 240 240 250 250 250 250 TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 12 13 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 VRATE KT-FT/100036 40 41 43 44 43 37 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 22 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..MISSING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (4000-31500 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........16 28 35 39 36 34 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............52 47 43 40 38 37 RH..............34 44 57 72 79 77 20 FT WIND......240/3 240/5 270/5 340/7 000/8 010/8 20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 10 14 16 16 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1000 500 1000 1000 1000 TRANSP WIND DIR.250 280 300 350 010 010 TRANSP WIND SPD.13 16 18 21 22 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 VRATE KT-FT/100032 16 6 20 24 24 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44. RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH. MIXING TEMP 1700FT..40. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (11500-50000 KNOT-FT). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........31 24 17 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............37 40 40 41 RH..............74 57 54 51 20 FT WIND......020/8G16 020/9G17 020/8G16 020/7G14 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 2500 2500 2000 TRANSP WIND DIR.010 020 010 010 TRANSP WIND SPD.21 16 13 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 VRATE KT-FT/100024 50 39 23 $$ FORECASTER...TRS REQUESTED BY...NEAL MULCONREY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130404.MNOKE.01/LOT