FNUS75 KRIW 051047
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH LITTLE MT5...BLM WOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
447 AM MDT FRI APR 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1820 MDT ON APRIL 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BURN SITE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY AROUND 9 PM. A MAINLY
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE ROCKIES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THE MOMENT...THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WOULD BE
THE BEST TIME FOR THE BURN SITE TO GET SOME PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 4-8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...THEN SWITCHING
                    TO THE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 4 PM AND
                    6 PM. GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTIER
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20 MPH BETWEEN 4 PM AND
                    6 PM.
LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BY AROUND NOON...THEN
                    SWITCHING TO WEST NORTHWEST 25-30 MPH
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR BY NOON...THEN GOOD
                    BY 2 PM.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.  PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT) AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    BY 9 PM...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH...DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 9 PM...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
                    10 MPH BY 9 PM...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY 9 PM.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). VERY ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR 0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS 35-40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...MONONI
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130404.NORTH.02/RIW