FNUS73 KLSX 051259
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARPAW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
759 AM CDT FRI APR 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...
BUT WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WIND NORTHWEST AT 1 MPH USING A WIND FACTOR
                    ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AT IGNITION...4900 FT AGL AT MAX
                    HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 8 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (5357 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND AT 2 TO 3 MPH USING A WIND
                    FACTOR ADJUSTMENT OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 5 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 7
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON USING A
                    WIND FACTOR ADJUSTMENT OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 40 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (20582 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...GKS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS WOODS  DFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130405.BEARP.01/LSX