FNUS73 KPAH 080025 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CANE RIDGE UNIT C...USFS MARK TWAIN NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 725 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... GENERAL NOTE...WITH THE NEXT FIRE WEATHER SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST EXPECTED BEFORE 530 AM CDT MONDAY...THERE MAY BE A NEED TO REQUEST A REVISED SPOT FORECAST FOR NEW INFORMATION ON THE SAME LOCATION. AT THE TIME OF IGNITION MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY STILL REMAIN A HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THUNDERSTORM MUCH FURTHER WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY LOWER LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE PRESCRIBED BURN SITE. SCATTERED CLOUDINES SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT CAPPED...LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SPOT FORECAST LOCATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER 4 PM CDT. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD STILL REMAIN 20 TO 40 MILES NORTH OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR BURNING... AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED. SOUTH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY ERRATIC STRONGER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BY WEDNESDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND...SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BURN FINE FUELS SUCH AS GRASSES AND SMALL TIMBER THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. IN ADDITION...GREEN UP OF VEGETATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE IN THE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 71. RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2100-3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 28 TO 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............66 68 69 70 70 70 70 70 RH..............70 68 66 63 65 66 66 67 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.29 28 28 28 28 29 30 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 32 TO 41 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............69 67 66 65 64 63 63 62 62 62 61 61 RH..............69 74 77 80 83 86 86 89 89 87 90 90 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.32 33 36 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 41 40 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75. RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 39 TO 40 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............61 63 66 68 69 71 72 73 74 74 74 73 RH..............90 84 77 73 72 70 67 65 65 65 65 68 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...YEOMAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130408.CANER.01/PAH