FNUS71 KCTP 082324 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR D3C...PA ARMY NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 724 PM EDT MON APR 8 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TO THE POCONO REGION OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF VERY MILD AIR WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL SHY OF ANY RED FLAG CRITERIA...EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY DRY FINE FUELS. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-5200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4200-6000 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 600-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 17 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............48 47 38 20 11 17 30 42 54 66 72 73 73 73 74 74 74 72 66 61 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................64 67 69 70 72 73 75 72 70 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 RH..................63 57 54 51 48 47 45 48 53 59 64 66 68 69 71 74 76 80 83 87 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......9 10 12 13 14 13 12 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.6 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.0 5.7 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W NW NW NW NW W W W W SW SW SW S S S S S S SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....22 25 25 24 22 21 20 17 14 9 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 28 TO 33 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............56 50 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................57 56 61 64 67 71 73 74 76 77 79 77 RH..................90 93 78 71 64 57 53 51 48 46 44 48 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.3 1.9 3.7 5.3 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.7 7.1 6.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....5 5 7 15 24 31 33 32 31 31 30 28 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING. TRANSPORT WINDS..... HAINES INDEX........MISSING. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............48 48 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................74 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 64 62 61 60 RH..................52 58 61 63 65 66 68 70 71 74 77 81 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......M M M M M M M M M M M M TRANSP WIND DIR.....M M M M M M M M M M M M TRANSP WIND SPD.....M M M M M M M M M M M M LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........M M M M M M M M M M M M .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL................. MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING. TRANSPORT WINDS..... HAINES INDEX........MISSING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............61 61 61 61 61 61 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................59 61 67 71 74 77 RH..................83 75 61 52 47 42 20 FT WIND..........SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 S 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........M M M M M M TRANSPORT WIND......M M M M M M LAL.................M M M M M M HAINES INDEX........M M M M M M $$ FORECASTER...LAMBERT REQUESTED BY...JD LAMBRINOS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130409.D3C__.01/CTP