FNUS71 KRNK 142248 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEPHANT FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 648 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1830 EDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WILDFIRE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MOST OF THE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL FALL FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. SUNNY...WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN LIKELY LATE. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....LOWER 50S. MAX HUMIDITY........85 TO 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING... INCREASING TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............54 55 62 74 81 85 90 94 95 98 99 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................69 66 65 63 61 59 58 57 56 55 54 RH..................34 39 42 46 50 54 57 61 63 67 70 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 CWR.................0 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 40 50 70 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60 TO 65. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............99 99 100 98 95 94 95 96 98 97 96 96 WEATHER COV.........DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................53 51 53 54 56 58 59 60 61 61 62 63 RH..................75 82 78 75 72 69 68 67 66 66 65 65 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 CWR.................80 70 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 40 40 30 $$ FORECASTER...BEASLEY REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130414.ELEPH.01/RNK