FNUS71 KCTP 151015 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR STITZER GAP RX FIRE...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY/DCNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 615 AM EDT MON APR 15 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED SPRINKLES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 59. RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 600-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-5500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 99 98 97 WEATHER COV.........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 52 53 55 56 57 58 57 RH..................57 55 52 51 49 51 50 52 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......8 9 12 14 15 15 15 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 12 14 18 22 23 24 24 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1100-1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 26 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............95 93 93 93 99 99 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................56 54 54 53 52 51 RH..................53 58 60 62 65 70 20 FT WIND..........S 14 S 14 S 15 S 14 S 10 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........4400 1800 1500 1700 1600 1200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 22 S 20 S 24 S 26 S 25 S 22 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 3 2 2 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-3200 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO 26 TO 32 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............100 100 100 89 89 89 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ LIKELY LIKELY TEMP................49 52 55 59 60 62 RH..................75 72 67 63 63 60 20 FT WIND..........S 7 S 8 S 10 S 13 S 13 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)........900 900 1800 2500 2700 3200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 17 S 17 S 28 S 32 S 28 S 28 LAL.................1 1 1 1 4 4 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...MIKE BECKER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130415.STITZ.01/CTP