FNUS71 KAKQ 171022 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHYHOPE...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 622 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE BURN SITE TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THEREFORE ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........63 TO 66 AT IGNITION...MAX 72 TO 75. RH..................75 TO 80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 TO 58 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING BECOMING EAST 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......750 TO 900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 1700-2200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING BECOMING EAST 5 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL. TIME (EDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............63 77 77 77 83 83 83 82 82 82 76 76 76 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................59 59 59 61 63 66 68 70 71 72 73 74 73 RH..................87 90 90 87 81 75 70 66 66 64 62 57 59 CHC OF PCPN (%)..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW W NW NW NE NE E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 6 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 5 10 15 15 15 20 20 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S SW SW SW SW W W NW NE E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.....16 15 13 12 8 6 5 5 5 7 9 13 15 VRATE KT-FT/1000....4 3 3 2 4 5 5 6 8 13 17 20 21 LVORI...............5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 ADI.................14 16 14 8 5 7 7 8 9 14 18 23 25 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52 TO 56. RH..................MAX 93 TO 97 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............74 74 74 74 74 74 77 77 77 80 80 80 WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH PTY PTY PTY ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG TSTM COV............ TEMP................71 70 66 64 62 61 60 60 59 58 58 57 RH..................61 63 70 73 75 78 78 78 78 83 83 90 CHC OF PCPN (%).....20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E E SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 VRATE KT-FT/1000....19 16 13 9 6 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 LVORI...............2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 ADI.................24 21 18 13 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING PATCHY FOG BY MID MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74 TO 78. RH..................MIN 42 TO 47 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 1700-2100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............74 74 74 64 64 64 50 50 50 47 47 47 WEATHER COV.........ARS ARS ARS PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG TSTM COV............ TEMP................56 57 59 63 66 70 72 74 75 76 78 76 RH..................93 93 87 75 68 59 55 51 50 50 47 52 CHC OF PCPN (%)..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 20 20 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....12 12 12 14 16 18 21 22 23 24 25 25 VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 3 3 6 10 16 23 29 37 40 43 44 LVORI...............6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................8 8 8 9 18 23 31 44 42 45 48 48 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECASTER...DEROSA REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130417.MARSH.01/AKQ