FNUS74 KLZK 171135 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE BEAR SOUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 635 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... OVERALL DRY...WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE MOISTURE TO ARKANSAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL DRIFT MORE NORTH...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT OF ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING THE RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 83. RH..................71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 20 TO 29 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 5400 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 3694 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............75 77 79 80 81 81 81 RH..............71 66 59 57 55 54 55 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 13 14 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 18 18 18 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 9 9 EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 8 8 11 11 11 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 28 28 29 29 29 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 68. RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 29 TO 31 MPH. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LVORI...............1. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............80 79 77 76 74 74 73 72 72 71 71 70 RH..............56 59 63 67 71 73 75 78 79 80 81 83 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 15 16 17 17 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 18 21 21 25 25 25 25 25 25 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.8 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 EYE LVL WND GST.11 11 11 11 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.29 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 30 30 29 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 28 TO 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 2700 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 1007 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............70 69 70 71 72 71 71 71 67 64 60 58 RH..............85 88 85 83 81 78 75 72 68 64 60 60 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..21 21 21 20 18 17 17 15 14 14 14 16 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 21 21 21 18 18 18 18 18 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW W W W EYE LVL WND SPD.13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 15 15 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.29 28 29 31 32 33 35 35 33 31 28 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 50 50 50 70 70 70 80 80 $$ FORECASTER...M TREXLER REQUESTED BY...JWF TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130417.LITTL.01/LZK