FNUS75 KRIW 181005
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAVA CREEK RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
405 AM MDT THU APR 18 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY SUNRISE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) AFTER 1500L WITH
                    ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
                    THE NORTHEAST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-37.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3500 FT AGL AT NOON INCREASING TO 4400-4900
                    FT AGL BY 1500L.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR AT NOON INCREASING TO GOOD (50000-72000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
                    AFTER 0300L.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-23.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-89 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASING TO
                    BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN POOR (50000 KNOT-FT
                    EARLY THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20000 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELY POSSIBLY MIXED
                    WITH RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-55 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000 THEN INCREASING TO FAIR BY MIDDAY
                    AND BRIEFLY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. (38000-65000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS AROUND
18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...JIM RAMIREZ
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130418.LAVAC.01/RIW