FNUS71 KCTP 221245 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR BUZZARD SWAMP RX...ALLEGHENY NATIONAL FOREST/USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 845 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON APRIL 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 20 MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND AVERAGE 40 TO 45 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH TODAY...THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRYING FINE FUELS WILL BRING AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD IN FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5300-6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............58 56 52 50 46 37 33 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................48 50 52 54 54 55 54 RH..................38 36 34 34 33 33 33 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......14 14 13 12 12 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 20 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......4.6 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 16 14 12 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33. RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 36 37 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................53 51 48 45 43 41 40 38 37 36 36 35 RH..................35 38 42 48 52 57 60 65 68 71 72 76 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......5.9 5.1 4.0 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 15 17 16 15 14 14 15 15 13 9 8 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............38 40 41 54 44 37 34 34 56 56 56 56 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................35 35 37 39 44 49 51 54 56 58 60 58 RH..................77 76 71 70 59 50 47 43 40 38 36 39 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 13 15 14 13 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER/COLBERT REQUESTED BY...CRAIG KOSTZREZWSKI TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130422.BUZZA.01/CTP