FNUS71 KCTP 220926 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR R34 38 D-7B-UPDATE...PA ARNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 526 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND ITS RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 20 MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 35 PERCENT...AND AVERAGE 40 TO 45 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH TODAY...THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRYING FINE FUELS WILL BRING AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD IN FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DISTRICT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 8 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5600-6000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............46 43 44 44 45 46 48 50 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................45 49 50 52 53 53 54 54 RH..................50 41 40 38 38 38 37 37 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......10 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......5.1 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.....20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............52 54 55 57 63 68 74 79 82 83 85 86 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................52 51 49 47 46 44 43 41 40 39 39 38 RH..................40 43 46 49 53 57 61 65 70 73 76 79 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......12 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......5.2 4.6 3.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.....20 21 22 18 15 12 9 8 7 7 7 7 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............88 90 91 100 100 100 100 100 44 44 44 44 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................39 39 40 40 43 47 49 51 53 54 56 54 RH..................78 76 75 73 67 61 58 56 53 51 49 52 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE S TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 10 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 $$ FORECASTER...LAMBERT REQUESTED BY...SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130422.R3438.02/CTP