FNUS74 KLZK 231157 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTEL BEAR SOUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 657 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE BURN SITE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPECIFICALLY...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AROUND THE BURN SITE AFTER 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 12 MPH MAY AFFECT THE BURN SITE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BY THIS WOULD ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS BY THE TIME THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUCH GUSTS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER AND KILL THE GUST POTENTIAL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH BY MID MORNING. SOME GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 31 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 18 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 3700 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 1986 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............66 69 70 71 72 71 69 RH..............64 61 60 58 58 59 62 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 10 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 18 18 18 18 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 6 6 6 6 5 EYE LVL WND GST.7 7 10 11 12 11 7 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.22 23 24 23 22 20 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 40 40 40 40 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTH 10 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 2500 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 820 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. LVORI...............1. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............67 64 62 59 57 54 52 49 48 47 46 45 RH..............65 70 73 75 78 81 84 87 86 86 85 85 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.14 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 EYE LVL WND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N EYE LVL WND SPD.5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.8 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 60 60 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 30 30 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59. RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTH 8 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 4900 FT MSL. MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 3217 FT AGL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW TEMP............44 43 46 48 50 52 54 56 57 58 59 58 RH..............84 84 76 69 62 57 51 47 45 44 42 45 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...JWF TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130423.LITTE.01/LZK