FNUS71 KRNK 231341
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR GARDEN CREEK...NCFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WEDGE OF
COOL AIR BREAKS DOWN...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A TENTH /0.10/ TO ONE QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH...WITH UPWARDS
OF A HALF /.50/ INCH POSSIBLE FROM THE ALLEGHANY MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...THUS REMAINING
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  23  22  25
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  65  66  66
RH..................37  35  35  36
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   4   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10
CWR.................0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............26  27  29  33  38  43  49  54  57  54  48  45
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64  60  57  55  54  54  53  53  53  52  52  52
RH..................39  44  50  54  57  59  60  62  63  67  70  73
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...JANET PEARSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130423.GARDE.01/RNK