FNUS71 KCTP 231802 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN RIDGE...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY/DCNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 202 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41. RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............13 18 21 23 28 31 33 36 38 43 54 59 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................54 53 51 50 48 47 46 44 43 43 42 41 RH..................55 57 60 65 71 78 80 82 84 86 89 91 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.6 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 31 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 89 89 89 89 WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ CHC CHC CHC CHC TEMP................43 44 46 50 54 57 61 64 68 68 68 70 RH..................90 89 88 77 68 63 56 51 44 45 43 41 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......5 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 16 17 17 17 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.7 5.7 5.8 5.4 4.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 13 15 15 15 15 16 18 22 25 29 31 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...KEITH EWAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130424.FERNR.01/CTP