FNUS75 KGJT 232139
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOBCAT RX...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT TUE APR 23 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY LATE MORNING...THIS WILL
LEAD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD OVER-RIDE THE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM TO HELP FORM SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BURN SITE BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FARTHER EAST.
GUSTY WINDS HOWEVER MAY RESULT FROM NEARBY STORMS OR VIRGA OVERHEAD.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 7 TO
                    12 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL THROUGH 0900 THEN INCREASING TO 9500
                    FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH 1000 THEN WEST 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING BECOMING EAST TO
                    SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BY LATE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 13
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 64 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE MORNING
                    HOURS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 0900 INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL THROUGH 0900 INCREASING TO 14500
                    FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...KEITH KRAUSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130424.BOBCA.01/GJT