FNUS71 KCTP 242121 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR TURNIP PATCH - 055...PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 521 PM EDT WED APR 24 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... SPOT FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE MISSING MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND PARAMETERS. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE SHOWERS COULD END AS A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE STATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2200...THEN NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 800-1200 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 33 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............68 94 94 94 78 66 62 53 48 47 45 43 WEATHER COV.........CHC DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............CHC SCT SCT SCT TEMP................67 65 63 59 56 52 49 45 42 41 40 39 RH..................53 55 56 61 67 73 74 75 76 75 74 73 20 FT WIND DIR......S S SW SW W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......17 16 15 13 14 15 15 13 12 12 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....50 50 50 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S S W W W W NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....29 29 29 30 32 33 32 30 26 21 15 12 LAL.................4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5700-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............38 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................39 39 40 43 46 49 51 53 55 55 56 56 RH..................71 69 66 58 51 45 41 38 35 34 33 32 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W NW NW W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.0 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.8 7.1 6.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....12 14 16 15 13 10 8 7 6 7 8 9 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130425.TURNI.01/CTP