FNUS73 KAPX 301245 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOLLI 1 7...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 845 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...TWO LINES OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING. THE FIRS ONE IS WILL BE THROUGH BY 900 AM. THE SECOND ONE...WHICH HAS SOME HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE AROUND 200 PM. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 MPH IN THE VICINITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THESE LINES ARE THROUGH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 33 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO 3800-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1700). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........80 75 65 61 59 57 55 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW TEMP............65 67 69 71 72 72 72 RH..............63 61 57 55 53 53 55 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 12 13 13 13 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......800 110014001600170017001600 .TONIGHT... TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM TEMP............71 70 69 68 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 60 RH..............57 59 63 65 70 73 75 81 81 84 87 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 20 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........45 46 47 48 49 71 WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 60 67 73 75 75 RH..............84 87 70 55 48 46 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......0 100 500 1300 2100 2100 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...PAUL LYDEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130430.LOLLI.01/APX