FNUS75 KBOU 011606 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR THREE STRIKES INCIDENT EXERCISE...NORTHWEST INCIDENT MANAGEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1005 AM MDT WED MAY 1 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0949 MDT ON MAY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS...MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS WITH 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31. MIN HUMIDITY........46%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................75 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 15. MAX HUMIDITY........86%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 0500...THEN 2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MIN HUMIDITY........31%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 7800-8800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 0900. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .FRIDAY...NOT AS COOL. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR THREE STRIKES INCIDENT EXERCISE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/01-10 93 83 73 31 57 NW 2 2 3 1 SW 52 4356 SW 3 16686 P 05/01-11 93 83 73 30 53 CALM 1 3 1 SSW 45 5233 SW 5 20680 P 05/01-12 92 76 62 29 51 CALM 1 3 1 SSW 38 6111 SW 5 24673 P 05/01-13 92 76 62 30 47 N 3 3 3 1 SW 35 5829 SSW 5 25453 P 05/01-14 92 76 62 31 46 NE 6 6 3 1 SW 31 5548 S 6 26232 P 05/01-15 92 76 62 31 47 ENE 8 13 3 1 WSW 29 5267 SE 6 27012 P 05/01-16 92 76 62 30 49 ENE 8 13 2 1 WSW 26 4985 E 7 27792 P 05/01-17 92 76 62 29 52 ENE 8 8 2 1 W 24 4704 ENE 7 28572 P 05/01-18 78 41 18 27 58 ENE 7 7 2 1 W 23 4422 NE 8 29351 P 05/01-19 78 41 18 26 60 ENE 7 7 2 1 W 22 4266 NE 8 27871 P 05/01-20 78 41 18 25 63 ENE 7 7 2 1 W 20 4110 ENE 7 26390 P 05/01-21 78 41 18 24 65 ENE 7 7 2 1 W 18 3953 ENE 7 24909 P 05/01-22 78 41 18 22 71 ENE 6 6 2 1 W 18 3797 ENE 7 23428 P 05/01-23 78 41 18 20 78 ENE 5 5 2 1 W 17 3640 E 7 21947 P 05/02-00 48 5 1 19 81 ENE 3 3 2 1 W 17 3484 E 7 20467 P 05/02-01 48 5 1 18 82 ENE 2 2 2 1 W 16 3451 ENE 6 18715 P 05/02-02 48 5 1 18 79 CALM 1 2 1 WNW 15 3418 ENE 6 16963 P 05/02-03 48 5 1 17 80 CALM 1 2 1 NW 14 3384 NE 5 15211 P 05/02-04 48 5 1 16 83 CALM 1 2 1 NW 17 2968 NE 5 12176 P 05/02-05 48 5 1 15 86 ENE 2 2 2 1 NNW 21 2552 ENE 3 9141 P 05/02-06 28 2 0 15 85 E 2 2 2 1 NNW 24 2136 ENE 3 6106 P 05/02-07 28 2 0 18 79 NE 2 2 2 1 NNW 26 4334 NE 6 32789 P 05/02-08 28 2 0 22 70 NNW 2 2 2 1 NNW 29 6533 N 9 59472 F 05/02-09 23 0 0 26 61 WNW 2 2 2 1 NNW 32 8732 NNW 12 86154 G 05/02-10 23 0 0 29 55 WNW 3 3 2 1 N 38 8718 NNW 12 88887 G 05/02-11 23 0 0 32 50 NW 3 3 2 1 N 44 8704 NNW 13 91619 G 05/02-12 25 0 0 34 46 NW 5 5 2 1 N 49 8691 NNW 13 94352 G 05/02-13 25 0 0 36 42 NW 6 6 2 1 N 54 8720 NNW 14105098 V 05/02-14 25 0 0 39 38 NW 6 6 2 1 N 58 8750 NNW 15115843 V 05/02-15 25 0 0 41 34 NW 7 7 2 1 N 58 8780 NNW 16126589 V 05/02-16 25 0 0 42 32 NW 8 8 2 1 N 55 8363 NNW 17122403 V 05/02-17 25 0 0 42 31 NW 8 8 2 1 N 51 7946 NNW 17118217 V 05/02-18 13 0 0 40 32 NW 8 8 2 1 N 47 7529 NNW 17114031 V 05/02-19 13 0 0 38 35 WNW 7 7 2 1 N 45 6745 NNW 16 96887 G 05/02-20 13 0 0 35 40 W 5 5 2 1 N 44 5961 NNW 15 79743 G 05/02-21 13 0 0 32 45 W 3 3 2 1 N 43 5177 NNW 14 62599 G 05/02-22 13 0 0 30 50 W 2 2 2 1 N 41 4456 NW 13 49488 F 05/02-23 13 0 0 29 55 WSW 2 2 2 1 N 40 3735 WNW 10 36378 P 05/03-00 8 0 0 28 58 SW 2 2 2 1 N 39 3014 WNW 9 23267 P 05/03-01 8 0 0 27 60 SW 2 2 2 1 N 38 2226 W 7 16127 P 05/03-02 8 0 0 25 61 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 37 1438 W 5 8987 P 05/03-03 8 0 0 23 63 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 36 650 WSW 3 1848 P 05/03-04 8 0 0 21 67 CALM 1 2 1 NNW 35 586 WSW 3 1733 P 05/03-05 8 0 0 20 68 SSW 2 2 2 1 N 33 521 SW 3 1618 P 05/03-06 15 0 0 21 67 SSW 3 3 2 1 N 33 457 SW 3 1503 P 05/03-07 15 0 0 24 62 SW 3 3 2 1 N 33 1656 WSW 6 12581 P 05/03-08 15 0 0 30 54 WSW 5 5 2 1 NNW 35 2855 WNW 8 23660 P 05/03-09 15 0 0 35 47 W 5 5 2 1 NNW 35 4055 NW 10 34739 P 05/03-10 15 0 0 39 41 W 5 5 2 1 NNW 33 5010 NW 12 49815 F 05/03-11 15 0 0 43 37 W 6 6 2 1 NNW 33 5965 NW 13 64891 G 05/03-12 42 0 0 46 34 W 6 6 2 1 NNW 32 6921 NW 14 79968 G 05/03-13 42 0 0 48 32 WNW 7 7 2 1 NNW 31 7516 NW 14 88475 G 05/03-14 42 0 0 49 31 WNW 8 8 2 1 NW 30 8112 NW 14 96981 G 05/03-15 42 0 0 50 30 WNW 8 8 2 1 NW 29 8707 NW 14105488 V 05/03-16 42 0 0 50 30 WNW 8 8 2 1 NW 28 8313 NW 14 96178 G 05/03-17 42 0 0 48 31 NW 7 7 2 1 NW 28 7919 NW 13 86869 G 05/03-18 49 3 1 46 34 NW 6 6 2 1 NW 26 7525 NW 12 77559 G 05/03-19 49 3 1 43 39 NW 5 5 2 1 NW 25 5325 NW 9 52433 F 05/03-20 49 3 1 40 46 NNW 2 2 3 1 WNW 24 3125 NW 6 27307 P 05/03-21 49 3 1 37 54 CALM 1 3 1 WNW 23 925 NNW 2 2181 P 05/03-22 49 3 1 34 61 CALM 1 3 1 WNW 23 745 N 2 1735 P 05/03-23 49 3 1 33 67 CALM 1 3 1 WNW 22 565 NE 2 1289 P 05/04-00 65 7 1 31 71 SE 2 2 3 1 WNW 22 384 ENE 2 843 P 05/04-01 65 7 1 30 73 SE 2 2 3 1 WNW 22 375 ENE 3 987 P 05/04-02 65 7 1 30 75 SE 2 2 3 1 NW 22 365 E 3 1130 P 05/04-03 65 7 1 28 77 CALM 2 3 1 NW 21 356 E 5 1274 P 05/04-04 65 7 1 27 77 CALM 2 3 1 NW 20 358 E 5 1430 P 05/04-05 65 7 1 26 78 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 18 360 E 5 1586 P 05/04-06 57 13 3 27 78 CALM 1 3 1 NNW 16 362 E 6 1742 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...VERN HOLMES TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20130501.THREE.01/BOU