FNUS73 KGRR 011159
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JORGENSON RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY
AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THIS
FRONT. THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL STAY OUT TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE
WEEKEND.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........78 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 17 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 7 MPH IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100-7600
                    FT AGL DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 700-1000
                    (EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING
                    THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    1100-1400 (EXCELLENT) THROUGH MID
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 300-700 (GOOD TO
                    EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

TIME (EDT)      2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........23     31     42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     80     79
RH..............42     41     44
20 FT WIND......SW 17  SW 13  W 10
20 FT GUST......       15
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO
                    6 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 8 MPH IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR) INCREASING TO 600-1000
                    (EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING
                    THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    900-1300 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO
                    300-700 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY
                    DECREASING TO 200 (FAIR).

$$
FORECASTER...OSTUNO
REQUESTED BY...STEVE HATTING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130501.JORGE.01/GRR