FNUS73 KAPX 021536 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP 7...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1136 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE REGION LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A WETTING RAIN POSSIBLE. A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE x09 AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1100). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........35 41 51 56 WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............74 74 72 71 RH..............46 44 46 44 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 SMOKE DISP......1100900 500 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........57 59 60 64 72 80 87 95 99 99 98 97 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 65 62 58 55 51 49 47 47 46 45 45 RH..............47 52 56 62 69 77 80 83 79 83 82 86 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........96 94 89 82 77 77 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............45 49 57 65 70 73 RH..............89 83 80 69 49 48 20 FT WIND......NE 7 NE 6 E 5 E 3 SE 4 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 10 5 HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 200 600 700 $$ FORECASTER...JUSTIN ARNOTT REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130502.COMP7.01/APX