FNUS73 KAPX 021558 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP 72...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1158 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AMPLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A WETTING RAIN POSSIBLE. A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST 5 MPH AT IGNITION...AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 14 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1500). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 43 56 62 WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............75 74 73 71 RH..............43 43 43 42 20 FT WIND DIR..E E NE N 20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 SMOKE DISP......15001200600 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........61 60 59 63 71 80 88 96 100 99 98 96 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 66 62 58 53 49 46 44 39 39 39 40 RH..............45 48 54 59 69 77 83 86 100 100 100 100 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(600). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........94 92 87 81 76 76 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............42 48 56 63 68 70 RH..............96 83 80 69 52 51 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 E 4 E 4 SE 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 400 600 $$ FORECASTER...JUSTIN ARNOTT REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130502.COMP7.02/APX