FNUS73 KAPX 021324 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 924 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGED INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TODAY AS AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S...RESULTING IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................32 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 9300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1500). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........53 60 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............79 78 RH..............32 31 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......15001300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........67 74 78 78 78 78 77 77 77 77 77 77 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............75 72 73 70 68 65 63 61 60 58 57 56 RH..............33 35 34 39 45 54 56 60 60 62 62 64 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO SOUTH 14 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM TEMP............56 57 60 65 69 72 RH..............64 64 69 60 45 41 20 FT WIND......E 3 E 4 E 5 E 6 SE 7 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...JUSTIN ARNOTT REQUESTED BY...GRANT GIFFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130502.SOUTH.01/APX