FNUS73 KDTX 021247
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRD HILLS...ANN ARBOR PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
847 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 02.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO
ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL POSSIBLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER TO
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

FOR TODAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE SITE.
MIN RH IN THE SHADED EAST FACING SLOPE MAY ONLY DROP TO 45 PERCENT.
MIN RH IN THE OPEN SAVANNAH AREA WITH SOUTHERN EXPOSURE SHOULD DROP
TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 18 TO 20
                    MPH LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN...INCREASING TO 8000 FT
                    AGL BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 3800 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...1400).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........20  23  26  30  33  37  40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............76  76  76  76  76  73  70
RH..............40  42  40  37  37  43  48
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.10  10  11  13  14  14  13
EYE LVL WND GST.15  20  20  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 6.6 8.0 8.9 8.7 6.6 3.8
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRATE (KT-FT)...600 800 1100140014001200700

$$
FORECASTER...CONSIDINE
REQUESTED BY...DAVID BORNEMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130502.BIRDH.01/DTX