FNUS73 KAPX 031539 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP7...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1139 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING UP THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. QUITE A TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE FOUND ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND NEAR THE COLD GREAT LAKES WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE 50S NEAR THE COASTS TO WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE BURN SITE. ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY THANKS TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN WITH RH VALUES AT THE BURN SITE FALLING INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...SOME GUSTS TO 14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........58 58 56 56 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 77 77 76 RH..............45 42 42 42 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE E 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......700 800 700 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........55 54 54 53 50 48 46 44 44 43 42 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............72 67 63 62 62 63 63 61 58 56 53 51 RH..............48 54 62 65 67 65 62 62 67 69 74 80 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........40 38 39 41 42 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............50 49 58 64 69 72 RH..............83 89 64 50 42 38 20 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 2 SE 4 SE 5 SE 5 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 300 800 1400 1200 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130503.COMP7.01/APX