FNUS76 KMFR 060123
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHIVELY CR  FIRE...DOUGLAS FPA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
623 PM PDT SUN MAY 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1543 PDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA IS SENDING
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BURN AREA THIS EVENING
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON
MONDAY...THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET ON MONDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
                    DIMINISH AROUND 10 PM PST. PARTLY
                    CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    0 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONGER
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE
                    2 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 1 TO 4 PH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE 0 TO 2 MPH BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE 1 TO 3 MPH IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
                    THEN BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS UP TO 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...DFPA DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130505.SHIVE.02/MFR