FNUS75 KCYS 060317
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK PRESCRIBED BURN...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
917 PM MDT SUN MAY 5 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL BE WEAK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AROUND 6-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN AT 20-30 PERCENT...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
TUESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30
PERCENT WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) AFTER NOON.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH THROUGH NOON
                    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 5-7 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER
                    NOON.
LAL.................2 AFTER NOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR THE GROUND IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5-7 MPH AFTER NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................2 IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    NEAR THE GROUND.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-7 MPH IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AFTER THE EVENING.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH AFTER NOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT AFTER NOON.
LAL.................3 AFTER NOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR THE GROUND IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...FINCH
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTOPHER OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130506.MORGA.01/CYS