FNUS75 KCYS 072359
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK BROADCAST RX...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
559 PM MDT TUE MAY 7 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AT THE BURN SITE AT LEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO COLORADO. WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS 0900...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1100. OF
COURSE...WINDS WOULD BE GUSTIER IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND
SUNSET...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHTER ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0900... THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTER 0900...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60 TO 64 DEGREES.
RH..................MIN 33 TO 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL AFTER NOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 18
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (31700-64700 KNOT-FT)
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (134500-143600 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37 TO 40.
RH..................MAX 80 TO 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2000
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT UNTIL 2100...THEN ZERO.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE..
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (36200-64300 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR (1300-2300 KNOT-FT)
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER NOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60 TO 64.
RH..................MIN AROUND 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY AT 8 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (24400-55300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING
                    TO EXCELLENT (115500-125300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130506.MORGA.02/CYS