FNUS72 KMLB 061245
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP E14...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE BURN SITE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH NEAR
THE BURN AREA TO ALLOW FOR FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
INLAND DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND WHILE IT MAY MAKE IT TO I-95
BY LATE IN THE DAY...IT PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH FARTHER INLAND.

LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IS LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....42.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............72  76  78  79  81  81  81  82  78  75  72  71
RH..............59  52  48  47  42  42  42  41  47  52  57  61
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   SW  SW  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   6   7   8   10  12  13  12  10  8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.                10  13  15  16  15  13  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............6.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130506.JDSPE.01/MLB