FNUS71 KCTP 070749 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR HARRY S VALLEY...BUREAU OF FORESTRY FD#5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FUNNEL A PLUME OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT NOTABLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............100 100 100 98 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................57 59 60 61 63 64 65 64 RH..................73 70 67 65 63 60 57 59 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.2 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.....16 20 21 22 22 22 21 21 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 24 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RN RN RN RN TSTM COV............ TEMP................64 63 61 59 58 57 57 57 57 56 56 55 RH..................58 60 64 67 70 73 74 75 77 79 80 84 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E E SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.....22 23 24 24 24 23 21 20 17 17 17 16 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF PDS PDS PDS PDS DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE........RN RN RN RN RN RN RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................54 55 55 56 57 59 60 60 61 62 63 62 RH..................88 84 84 81 77 74 72 70 68 67 65 67 20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 13 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...LAMBERT REQUESTED BY...DAN LECRONE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130507.HARRY.01/CTP