FNUS73 KDLH 071157 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR FEDERAL DAM RX...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... .TODAY...EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH A MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 40 PERCENT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY REMAIN HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT I TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE MIXING THAT MAY HELP DRAW DOWN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE PROPOSED BURN TIME. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE MIGHT BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT IF THE BURN LOCATION IS AFFECTED BY A STORM, PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS WITH ERRATIC DIRECTION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE ABOUT 0.10" TO 0.25" OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL AT 11 AM INCREASING TO 7350 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45000) AT 11 AM INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (94800) THIS AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............65 67 70 69 RH..............48 45 41 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 6 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 8 8 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26500) DECREASING TO POOR (1050) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............65 58 52 48 46 46 RH..............48 64 83 95 95 95 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.7 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 3 TO 4 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500) INCREASING TO FAIR (15900) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO FAIR (28200) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO FAIR (25100) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............48 59 65 64 65 64 RH..............93 67 56 56 52 56 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...GEOFF REQUESTED BY...ADAM COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130507.FEDER.01/DLH