FNUS75 KGJT 070009
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RAY MESA II PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
609 PM MDT MON MAY 6 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA
AND TRIGGER INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN BUT FOR THE MOST PART
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GENERAL FLOW SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD LEADING TO
RIDGETOP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH. FARTHER
DOWN THE NORTH SLOPE...WINDS MAY BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH
UPVALLEY WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH THE RIDGETOP WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%)
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH 1000
                    THEN UP VALLEY AT 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 7 TO 12 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY 1300.
CLEARING INDEX......350 INCREASING TO 1050 BY LATE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 0900 THEN INCREASING
                    TO 10500 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    POSSIBLE THROUGH 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 37 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS DEVELOPING BY 1900.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH 2100 THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLEARING INDEX......1050 THROUGH 2000 THEN DECREASING TO 50.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT
                    AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH THROUGH 2100 THEN TERRAIN
                    DRIVEN AT 3 TO 7 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 59 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS LOOK TO BE TERRAIN INFLUENCED THROUGH
                    THE DAY WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST RIDGETOP WINDS
                    IN PLACE. DOWNVALLEY WINDS AT 3 TO 8 MPH
                    BECOMING UPVALLEY BY 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN
                    BY 1300.
CLEARING INDEX......200 THROUGH 0900 INCREASING TO 1050 BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 1000 INCREASING TO
                    11500 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH 1000 THEN SOUTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JOSH RELPH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130507.RAYME.01/GJT