FNUS73 KDLH 081430
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR 1006 S...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION AS OF 9 AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND CRANE
LAKE...AND WERE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THIS SPOT FORECAST ARE THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY...AND THUS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 2-4 HOURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 11
AM AND 5 PM WITH THE FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME NEAR ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
                    PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000) INCREASING TO FAIR (20900) LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD (30800)
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO POOR
                    (1400) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
TEMP............69     69     66     64
RH..............42     40     46     56
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     N      N
20 FT WIND SPD..2      2      2      2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      6      6      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE
                    OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500) INCREASING TO FAIR (24100).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............62     54     52     48     45     43
RH..............61     75     86     86     86     89
20 FT WIND DIR..N      N      N      N      N      NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2      3      4      5      7      7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      8      10     10     8      8

$$
FORECASTER...DAN
REQUESTED BY...JESSICA OSSEFOORT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130508.1006S.01/DLH