FNUS73 KDLH 081537 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR MOOSEFENCE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1037 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 CDT ON MAY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS SPOT FORECAST ARE THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION... THERE MAY BE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT MID MORNING...LOCATED JUST WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOK COUNTY AND PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7000) INCREASING TO FAIR (18200) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO POOR (3950) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM TEMP............67 65 64 65 62 RH..............51 34 35 37 51 20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 8 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2200) INCREASING TO FAIR (20500). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............60 54 53 49 47 46 RH..............59 73 77 86 89 86 20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 6 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 12 15 $$ FORECASTER...DAN REQUESTED BY...JESSICA OSSEFOORT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130508.MOOSE.01/DLH