FNUS73 KMQT 081207 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH SCHAAWE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 807 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WEATHER SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT DEEP MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW THE RH VALUES WILL GO DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE SHORE. BASED ON DRY AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FEEL CONFIDENT THEY WILL DROP TOWARDS 20 PERCENT ALTHOUGH MID TEENS IS POSSIBLE BASED ON VALUES YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE DAY...BUT EXPECT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TOWARDS NOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO 10 MPH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 17 MPH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE BURN SITE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO 17 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6...OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (3) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (349). TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........12 11 16 18 15 28 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 66 74 77 75 69 RH..............61 34 23 20 22 27 GENERAL WIND....S 3 S 6 S 6 S 7 S 7 S 7 GENERAL GUST....5 12 14 16 16 14 VINDX KT-FT/100.3 49 261 279 292 101 TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 6 W 5 W 3 SW 5 SW 5 HAINES INDEX....6 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 79 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS THROUGH LATE EVENING BECOMING CALM...THEN BECOMING NORTH 7 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5...OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........35 48 62 75 80 84 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............65 55 49 48 47 47 RH..............32 48 64 72 76 77 GENERAL WIND....SE 4 SE 4 E 3 N 5 N 5 N 6 GENERAL GUST....6 6 7 7 8 VINDX KT-FT/100.19 0 7 8 13 10 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 3 SW 3 W 3 N 6 N 6 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 57. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 56 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 19 TO 30 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (427). TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........89 93 96 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 54 57 55 53 50 RH..............77 62 56 61 61 62 GENERAL WIND....N 7 N 7 N 10 N 10 N 10 N 11 GENERAL GUST....13 13 18 21 21 21 VINDX KT-FT/100.8 61 178 275 353 414 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3 N 8 N 14 N 17 N 21 N 24 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SRF REQUESTED BY...MIKE PETERSEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130508.SOUTH.02/MQT