FNUS75 KCYS 101534
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
934 AM MDT FRI MAY 10 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0850 MDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH
WINDS...BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN IS QUITE SMALL AS MOISTURE IS MORE
LIMITED TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
BE WEAK TONIGHT SO TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURE AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK FEATURES WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WINDS BECOMING QUITE BREEZY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT).........BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH
                    AFTER NOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 IN AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10-13 MPH AFTER NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE MORNING THEN EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37-41.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO NEAR THE
                    GROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10-13 MPH IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING POOR.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-7 MPH THROUGH NOON THEN BECOMING
                    WEST 10 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR THE GROUND IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 8500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...FINCH
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130510.MORGA.01/CYS