FNUS72 KJAX 100938 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK CREEK RAVINES...ST.JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 538 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT RANGE OVER INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...RH'S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 88. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 87. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........25 30 33 34 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............77 84 87 87 RH..............58 44 37 36 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 9 S 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 4400 6000 6000 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 12 S 14 S 14 DISPERSION INDX.29 48 64 85 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 64. RH..................MAX 98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....67 DECREASING TO 7. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........33 32 39 47 54 55 WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............84 79 73 70 68 66 RH..............41 53 66 74 81 87 20 FT WIND......S 8 SE 8 S 7 S 6 S 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4500 1600 1200 800 400 700 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 12 SW 9 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 5 DISPERSION INDX.67 8 5 6 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 0 0 0 0 LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86. RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 39 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 68 IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...PETERSON REQUESTED BY...HEATHER VENTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130510.BLACK.01/JAX