FNUS73 KMQT 100951 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR RIFLE RANGE RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 551 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON MAY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATION FROM RACO INDICATES 0.16 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FELL THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER 0.05 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE 8AM. THIS RAIN WILL THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE DONE AT THE BURN SITE BY 10AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SETTLE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SUNSET. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO FALLING RH VALUES THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH THE DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA AND CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD RH RECOVERY. THEN...A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SITE BY MID MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND PRODUCING GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND THEN SOME POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 57. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 27 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (564). MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........94 91 86 80 40 19 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............37 41 48 54 56 56 RH..............79 58 43 35 28 28 GENERAL WIND....NE 9 NE 9 NE 8 NE 6 NE 6 N 6 GENERAL GUST....17 18 16 15 13 9 VINDX KT-FT/100.328 438 522 541 534 440 TRANSPORT WIND..E 23 E 21 E 18 NE 16 NE 15 NE 13 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 2400 3300 3900 4100 4000 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 31. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 85 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 4 TO 9 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0). MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1200 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........17 13 11 12 31 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 41 34 33 31 33 RH..............33 51 71 77 79 77 GENERAL WIND....N 5 N 5 NW 4 W 4 W 4 W 5 GENERAL GUST....8 8 5 5 5 7 VINDX KT-FT/100.352 174 50 8 0 0 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 12 N 8 N 5 NW 3 NW 6 NW 9 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 2500 1200 300 BLW100 BLW100 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AROUND NOON...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 46. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 37 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (417) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1716). MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.10 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........75 70 66 61 68 74 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............33 39 44 45 45 45 RH..............85 69 59 58 53 51 GENERAL WIND....W 7 W 7 NW 10 NW 12 NW 12 NW 13 GENERAL GUST....14 14 23 28 28 28 VINDX KT-FT/100.30 245 656 1139 1526 1700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 20 NW 25 NW 30 NW 32 NW 32 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 3000 4400 5500 6100 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SRF REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130510.RIFLE.01/MQT