FNUS73 KMQT 111036 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR RIFLE RANGE RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 636 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1805 EDT ON MAY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWITCH SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST BY 1400 TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EVEN COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD REACH 30 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE RIFLE RANGE FIRE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 1600. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN STARTING ON MONDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT COME BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET AND SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 48. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 55 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 46 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (528) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (898) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 TO 0.10 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........75 84 88 87 76 66 WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSN TEMP............34 44 47 45 41 40 RH..............73 61 56 58 62 61 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 W 8 NW 11 NW 11 NW 12 GENERAL GUST....8 8 17 24 24 24 VINDX KT-FT/100.33 340 418 390 682 896 TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 15 W 13 W 14 NW 26 NW 37 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2600 3800 3200 3000 2800 HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 30. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 93 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 46 MPH DECREASING TO 19 TO 37 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO NORTH 34 TO 57 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (570) DECREASING TO POOR (0) BY LATE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-600 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........57 66 76 85 88 92 WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR TEMP............38 34 32 32 31 30 RH..............59 75 87 92 93 90 GENERAL WIND....NW 10 NW 10 W 8 NW 10 NW 10 NW 14 GENERAL GUST....22 22 16 22 22 28 VINDX KT-FT/100.810 283 50 119 131 18 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 38 NW 37 NW 30 NW 24 N 41 N 49 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 900 200 600 400 BLW100 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 41. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 29 TO 49 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (412) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1155) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1784) IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (1199) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5400 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.04 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........95 93 90 88 83 78 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR RNSN RNSN RNSN TEMP............31 36 39 40 40 40 RH..............84 68 57 53 52 52 GENERAL WIND....NW 17 NW 17 NW 18 NW 18 NW 18 NW 14 GENERAL GUST....30 30 35 35 35 31 VINDX KT-FT/100.90 813 1372 1645 1784 1496 TRANSPORT WIND..N 41 NW 38 NW 37 NW 38 NW 38 NW 37 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2500 4300 5000 5400 4700 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130510.RIFLE.02/MQT