FNUS73 KAPX 111347 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR TUTTLE...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 947 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...PROJECTED TO CROSS THE BURN SITE RIGHT AROUND 5 PM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST AROUND THAT TIME WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LIKELY PASSING THROUGH THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND PRODUCING ONE TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. COMBINED WITH YESTERDAYS RAINFALL...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 50. RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 5 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........90 93 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............49 50 RH..............68 68 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 18 HAINES INDEX....3 3 SMOKE DISP......12001400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 32 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 21 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........86 78 71 69 68 66 60 54 48 53 64 74 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............49 48 47 44 42 40 38 37 36 35 35 35 RH..............66 65 68 62 67 70 76 75 75 78 78 75 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 20 20 15 15 15 15 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......14001100700 500 500 400 300 300 300 300 300 500 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 43. RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 31 TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........84 100 100 100 100 99 WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE SNSHWR SNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............35 36 37 39 41 41 RH..............75 69 67 62 57 55 20 FT WIND......W 13 W 16 NW 18 NW 19 W 19 W 19 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 35 35 40 40 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 SMOKE DISP......800 1600 2000 2200 2200 2100 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130511.TUTTL.01/APX