FNUS75 KCYS 110907
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
307 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1825 MDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE LIFTED NORTH ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 9 AM. BY NOON
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 2 PM...BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 4
PM TODAY. BY THEN...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...THEY WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND YOU COULD SEE VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS SUNDAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING AGAIN TO THE UPPER TEENS.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 11 MPH AFTER 9 AM.
                    THEN NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER NOON TIME. WINDS VARIABLE AT 15 TO 25 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (19600-131800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO POOR (68800-3600 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    8 TO 12 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER NOON TIME.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (57600-151700 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CLAYCOMB
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130511.MORGA.01/CYS