FNUS74 KMOB 111323 FWSMOB SPOT FORECAST FOR TEST PLOT...EGLIN AF BASE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 823 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0710 CDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOIST AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MOST RAIN WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 23 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 4. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%)...........50 91 100 86 86 86 WEATHER COV.......CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE......TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP..............70 72 73 73 73 73 RH................87 85 84 84 84 85 20 FT WIND DIR....W W W SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD....1 1 5 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST... MIX HGT (FT)......1000 1000 1600 2200 2200 2200 MIX HGT (M).......300 300 490 670 670 670 TRANSP WIND DIR...W W W SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD...6 6 9 13 13 12 TRANS SPD (M/S)...3 3 4 6 6 5 DISPERSION........8 8 20 26 26 25 LVORI.............5 5 4 4 4 4 CWR...............30 60 80 80 80 80 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....25 DECREASING TO 7. LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 8 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 6 AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%)...........86 83 60 60 88 68 WEATHER COV.......DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE......TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP..............73 72 68 67 67 67 RH................83 86 95 95 95 96 20 FT WIND DIR....SW W W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD....6 3 3 3 4 6 20 FT WIND GUST... MIX HGT (FT)......2200 1400 1100 1100 800 800 MIX HGT (M).......670 430 340 340 240 240 TRANSP WIND DIR...SW W W W NW N TRANSP WIND SPD...12 8 7 7 8 12 TRANS SPD (M/S)...5 4 3 3 4 5 DISPERSION........25 5 3 3 7 11 LVORI.............4 5 8 8 6 6 CWR...............80 30 30 30 20 20 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 12 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....16 INCREASING TO 59. LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%)...........68 54 40 40 36 24 WEATHER COV.......S CHC WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP..............65 68 74 78 79 79 RH................98 84 62 51 46 44 20 FT WIND DIR....NW N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD....6 8 10 10 11 10 20 FT WIND GUST... 21 18 MIX HGT (FT)......800 1100 2600 2600 4100 4100 MIX HGT (M).......240 340 790 790 1250 1250 TRANSP WIND DIR...N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD...12 14 16 16 17 16 TRANS SPD (M/S)...5 6 7 7 8 7 DISPERSION........11 20 46 46 49 59 LVORI.............6 4 1 1 1 1 CWR...............20 10 10 10 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...12 REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20130511.TESTP.01/MOB