FNUS75 KTFX 111527
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALICE CREEK RX...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
927 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GENERAL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS DOMINATING THE AREA FOR
TODAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO
A LATER MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MORE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN TO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS NEAR SURFACE
WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL AND STRENGTH OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM
ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
                    NEAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY
                    WINDS NEAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 20 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC GUSTY
                    WINDS NEAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SUK
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL KAISER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130511.ALICE.01/TFX