FNUS75 KCYS 130243
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 MDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS CARBON
COUNTY AND THE BURN AREA ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN STRENGTHENING OVER WYOMING AND THE BURN AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY MORNING...
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE BURN AREA. WILL SEE INCREASING MIDDLE CLOUDS...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVER...AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...FAR FROM THE BURN SITE IN NORTH
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY WEST OF THE KORTES DAM AND NORTHWEST OF
SEMINOE DAM.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    30 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (83700-197800 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...RUBIN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130512.MORGA.02/CYS